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Mid-2025 AI Spending Capital Flows and Hidden Value

July 13, 2025

As AI spending nears US$1.8 trillion, power demands and regulation rise. Nvidia dominates, but second-source chips and efficient small caps may offer outsized returns in a crowded market.

The global AI market hauled in about US$279 billion last year and, on current run-rate, could clear US$1.8 trillion by 2030, a 36 percent compound clip. Within that pile, generative AI already tops US$25 billion and is set to break the US$100 billion line before the decade turns. grandviewresearch.comIoT Analytics

Three tailwinds keep the throttle open. First, big companies have moved from pilots to production—think chat support bots, code copilots and supply-chain optimizers. Second, every cloud and on-prem buyer is throwing fresh money at GPUs and custom ASICs, which is why Nvidia just booked US$39 billion in data-center sales for a single quarter. Third, the cost to train the biggest models keeps jumping—compute demand has been rising roughly four-fold each year—so whoever sells silicon or electricity stays busy. NVIDIA NewsroomEpoch AI

That silicon binge needs power. The IEA sees data-center electricity use more than doubling to roughly 945 TWh by 2030, with AI the main culprit. States from Texas to Virginia are already fast-tracking nukes and renewables to keep the lights on. IEA

Rules are finally taking shape. The EU AI Act locks in transparency demands for “general-purpose” models and forces each member to run at least one regulatory sandbox by August 2026. In the U.S., export curbs on top-end GPUs to China guide supply chains even as Congress still chases a national law. artificialintelligenceact.eu

Capital keeps pouring in. Amazon is weighing another multi-billion check to Anthropic, on top of the US$8 billion it has already written. Meanwhile, a Musk-led group tried to grab control of OpenAI with a US$97 billion bid earlier this year, showing the stakes at the very top. ReutersWall Street Journal

On the hardware side Nvidia remains king, but AMD’s MI325X, backed by AWS, Microsoft and Meta, lands in volume late-2025 and gives the hyperscalers a needed second source. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

Public valuations have split. Top names like Nvidia command rich double-digit sales multiples. Yet a few unloved tickers still trade light:

  • C3.ai—US$3.6 billion cap, 25 percent revenue growth, price-to-sales under 9×, and Oracle take-out chatter in the air.
  • SoundHound—about US$4.9 billion for voice AI that is already landing in Hyundai and Stellantis dashboards.
  • LivePerson—roughly US$550 million, just printed positive EBITDA while it pivots from chat to full AI agents. C3 AIYahoo FinanceInvesting.com

The biggest risks: training costs may outrun hardware gains, new rules could stall high-risk deployments, and a power crunch would squeeze margins. Small caps also face dilution if they need capital before revenue lands.

Still, demand growth, rising energy spend and a firming rule book give the sector a long runway. The crowded trade is Nvidia. The next set of outsized returns likely sits in second-source silicon, enterprise software with rising subscription revenue, and small caps that hit cash-flow breakeven before they hit the wall.


Sources:
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/artificial-intelligence-ai-market
https://iot-analytics.com/leading-generative-ai-companies/
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2026
https://epochai.org/blog/tracking-large-scale-ai-models
https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/energy-demand-from-ai
https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/implementation-timeline/
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-considers-another-multibillion-dollar-investment-anthropic-ft-reports-2025-07-10/
https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-openai-bid-4af12827
https://ir.c3.ai/c3-ai-announces-record-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-full-fiscal-year-2025-financial-results/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOUN/
https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/liveperson-q1-2025-slides-revenue-exceeds-guidance-despite-continued-contraction-93CH-4030111
https://ir.amd.com/financial-information/sec-filings/content/0001193125-25-067185/0001193125-25-067185.pdf